Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/2249Z from Region 1963 (S06E71). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan,
24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
488 km/s at 21/2051Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 21/2009Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 21/1708Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (22 Jan, 24 Jan) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (23 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jan 146 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan to 24 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 05% |
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