Viewing archive of Tuesday, 14 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/2151Z from Region 1944 (S12W88). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (15 Jan) and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 721 km/s at 14/0943Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/2254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2323Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 201 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Jan, 16 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
Class M25%10%10%
Class X10%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Jan 137
  Predicted   15 Jan-17 Jan 135/135/140
  90 Day Mean        14 Jan 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Jan  009/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan  005/005-006/005-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%05%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%15%25%
Major-severe storm15%05%35%

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