Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 January 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
11/1310Z from Region 1944 (S10W54). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
454 km/s at 11/0752Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/2019Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/1836Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 31 pfu at
10/2110Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 189 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jan).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 166 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 165/170/160 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 153
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 25% | 05% |
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