Viewing archive of Friday, 10 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 10 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 10/0727Z from Region 1944 (S09W43). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Jan, 12 Jan, 13 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 473 km/s at 09/2313Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 09/2253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 10/1449Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 159 pfu at 09/2150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 543 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (11 Jan), quiet to active levels on day two (12 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (13 Jan). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day one (11 Jan), are expected to cross threshold on day two (12 Jan) and have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (13 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton99%80%50%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Jan 175
  Predicted   11 Jan-13 Jan 175/170/175
  90 Day Mean        10 Jan 152

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jan  007/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Jan-13 Jan  015/018-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jan to 13 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%35%15%
Minor storm15%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm30%35%30%
Major-severe storm60%45%25%

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