Viewing archive of Sunday, 5 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 5 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 04/2252Z from Region 1936 (S15W90). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 505 km/s at 05/0329Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2256Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 05/0635Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 694 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (06 Jan), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (07 Jan) and unsettled to active levels on day three (08 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (06 Jan, 07 Jan, 08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 Jan 218
  Predicted   06 Jan-08 Jan 220/220/215
  90 Day Mean        05 Jan 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jan  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 05 Jan  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 06 Jan-08 Jan  006/005-011/015-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jan to 08 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%20%30%
Major-severe storm05%40%35%

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