Viewing archive of Saturday, 4 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 4 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 04/1946Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 559 km/s at 04/0054Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 04/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 879 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (05 Jan, 06 Jan, 07 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Jan 215
  Predicted   05 Jan-07 Jan 215/220/220
  90 Day Mean        04 Jan 147

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan  007/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Jan  005/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan to 07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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