Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0233Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 666 km/s at 02/2059Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1780 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jan, 04 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (05 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 161
  Predicted    03 Jan-05 Jan 165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  015/019
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  011/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%05%
Minor storm 05%05%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm 30%25%15%
Major-severe storm 25%20%05%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/07/10Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:129
Current stretch spotless days:11

This day in history*

Solar flares
12002X1.8
22000M3.3
32000M3.0
42002M2.2
52004M2.0
ApG
1200524G1
2201317G1
3200315G1
4200012
5199510
*since 1994

Social networks