Viewing archive of Thursday, 2 January 2014

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 2 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Jan 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/0233Z from Region 1944 (S08E64). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 666 km/s at 02/2059Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 01/2155Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 02/0152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1780 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Jan, 04 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (05 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (03 Jan, 04 Jan, 05 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
Class M75%75%75%
Class X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 Jan 161
  Predicted   03 Jan-05 Jan 165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        02 Jan 145

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 01 Jan  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  015/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  011/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Jan to 05 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm25%20%05%

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