Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 December 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
31/1150Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at
31/0012Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0605Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0745Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Jan, 03
Jan) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (02 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 145 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 150/150/155 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 009/010-014/018-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 25% |
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