Viewing archive of Monday, 30 December 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 29/2233Z from Region 1936 (S16W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 407 km/s at 30/1312Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/1415Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0807Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 29/2200Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Dec) and day two (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton15%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Dec 143
  Predicted   31 Dec-02 Jan 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        30 Dec 143

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec  004/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Dec  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan  006/005-009/010-012/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%25%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm15%25%30%
Major-severe storm05%15%30%

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