Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/0702Z from Region 1931 (S15W29). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec, 29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 286 km/s at 25/2220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2323Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2357Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Dec 125
  Predicted   27 Dec-29 Dec 125/125/130
  90 Day Mean        26 Dec 142

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Dec  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec  008/007-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%15%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

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