Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 December 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 360 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Dec 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
26/0702Z from Region 1931 (S15W29). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Dec, 28 Dec,
29 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 286 km/s at
25/2220Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/2323Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/2357Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Dec) and quiet levels
on days two and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Dec 125 Predicted 27 Dec-29 Dec 125/125/130 90 Day Mean 26 Dec 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Dec 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Dec-29 Dec 008/007-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Dec to 29 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
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