Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 December 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/1552Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 319 km/s at 23/2110Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M35%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 128
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  007/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%05%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm35%25%05%

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