Viewing archive of Monday, 23 December 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/2208Z from Region 1928 (S16W74). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at 23/1148Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M60%60%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 136
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  005/005-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%25%20%
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%35%25%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M9.7
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X2.45
22014X1.45
32023X1.2
42001M3.13
52001M3
ApG
1199928G2
2200337G1
3201328G1
4200122G1
5199820G1
*since 1994

Social networks