Viewing archive of Monday, 23 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 22/2208Z from Region 1928 (S16W74). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (26 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 345 km/s at 23/1148Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (24 Dec), quiet to active levels on day two (25 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (24 Dec, 25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
Class M60%60%40%
Class X10%10%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Dec 136
  Predicted   24 Dec-26 Dec 135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Dec 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Dec  003/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec  005/005-007/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec to 26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm01%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%35%25%

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