Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 353 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/1535Z from Region 1928 (S16W19). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 409 km/s at 19/1447Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/0034Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Dec, 21 Dec, 22 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Dec 153
  Predicted   20 Dec-22 Dec 155/150/145
  90 Day Mean        19 Dec 140

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Dec  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Dec to 22 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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