Viewing archive of Monday, 9 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 09/1130Z from Region 1917 (S16E43). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at 08/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 09/1443Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (12 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Dec 168
  Predicted   10 Dec-12 Dec 170/175/172
  90 Day Mean        09 Dec 133

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec  014/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Dec  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%20%15%
Major-severe storm35%10%05%

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