Viewing archive of Sunday, 8 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 08/1009Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec, 11 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 688 km/s at 08/1427Z. Total IMF reached 27 nT at 08/0219Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -24 nT at 08/0225Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Dec, 10 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Dec 166
  Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec 168/170/172
  90 Day Mean        08 Dec 132

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Dec  021/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  011/018-009/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec to 11 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%05%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm40%35%10%

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