Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/0729Z from Region 1909 (S17W61). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 426 km/s at 07/0755Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 07/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 07/2058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 148 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Dec) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Dec 157
  Predicted    08 Dec-10 Dec 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        07 Dec 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  003/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Dec  008/009
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  007/010-008/010-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 30%30%30%
Major-severe storm 35%35%35%

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