Viewing archive of Friday, 6 December 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Dec 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/0648Z from Region 1909 (S17W50). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 358 km/s at 06/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (07 Dec, 08 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Dec 151
  Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        06 Dec 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  004/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  011/012-011/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%05%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%15%
Major-severe storm40%40%05%

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