Viewing archive of Friday, 29 November 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 29/1006Z from Region 1907 (S09W22). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 363 km/s at 29/1852Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 29/1603Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 29/1253Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Nov, 01 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 129
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec 125/130/130
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  001/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  006/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%25%

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