Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 November 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z100 to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 21/1111Z from Region 1893 (S13, L=100). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 402 km/s at 20/2103Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov, 24 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M15%15%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 141
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov 135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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