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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 20/1722Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at 20/0630Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/0039Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3 pfu at 19/2105Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Nov 147
  Predicted   21 Nov-23 Nov 140/135/130
  90 Day Mean        20 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Nov  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov to 23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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