Viewing archive of Monday, 18 November 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 18/0415Z from Region 1897 (S18W30). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 475 km/s at 18/0514Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
Class M40%40%30%
Class X05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Nov 163
  Predicted   19 Nov-21 Nov 160/155/150
  90 Day Mean        18 Nov 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Nov  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov to 21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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