Viewing archive of Friday, 15 November 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 15/0229Z from Region 1899 (N06E35). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Nov, 17 Nov, 18 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at 15/1513Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 15/1917Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 15/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 790 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Nov, 18 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one through three (16-18 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton20%15%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Nov 178
  Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov 180/180/175
  90 Day Mean        15 Nov 124

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Nov  006/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  009/012-009/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov to 18 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%15%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm45%30%20%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

23%
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/03/23X1.1
Last M-flare2024/03/28M7.0
Last geomagnetic storm2024/03/25Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2024124.7 +1.7

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M7.0
22001M6.17
32000M4.46
42022M4.0
52014M3.79
ApG
1200144G2
2200327G2
3199721G2
4201727G1
5200421G1
*since 1994

Social networks