Viewing archive of Monday, 11 November 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 11/1118Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 588 km/s at 10/2113Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/0330Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 11/0334Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 686 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (14 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Nov 164
  Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        11 Nov 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  009/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Nov  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  012/012-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov to 14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm20%25%20%
Major-severe storm30%25%10%

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