Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 November 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 10/0514Z from Region 1890 (S12W28). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 649 km/s at 09/2105Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/2044Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 522 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M 60%60%60%
Class X 30%30%30%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 154
  Predicted    11 Nov-13 Nov 155/155/155
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 121

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  014/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  007/008
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  010/010-004/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm 05%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 25%20%20%
Major-severe storm 25%10%10%

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