Viewing archive of Thursday, 7 November 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Nov 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
07/1425Z from Region 1890 (S11E10). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
401 km/s at 07/1616Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 07/1034Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/1002Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6 pfu at
07/0435Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 148 Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 150/155/160 90 Day Mean 07 Nov 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 011/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov to 10 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
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