Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 31/1351Z from Region 1877 (S13W95). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 31/1631Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 31/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 31/1840Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 30/2115Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 Oct 143
  Predicted   01 Nov-03 Nov 140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        31 Oct 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 Oct  011/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov  006/005-005/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov to 03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%10%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

1%

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/10/26Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2020:13
Current stretch spotless days:11

This day in history*

Solar flares
12003M1.9
22005M1.7
32000M1.4
42005M1.2
52001M1.1
ApG
1200566G4
2201633G2
3200119
4200318
5200414
*since 1994

Social networks