Viewing archive of Wednesday, 30 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 29/2154Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 413 km/s at 30/1704Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 30/0843Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0713Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 30/0925Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (31 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton25%10%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Oct 142
  Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 117

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  019/025-013/015-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%25%15%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%20%

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