Viewing archive of Tuesday, 29 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 29/1831Z from Region 1875 (N06W92). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at 29/0940Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 29/1225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 29/1012Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 29/0140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 732 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (30 Oct, 01 Nov) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (31 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Oct 153
  Predicted   30 Oct-01 Nov 150/145/140
  90 Day Mean        29 Oct 116

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Oct  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov  011/012-017/024-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct to 01 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%45%20%
Minor storm05%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%35%25%

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