Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
26/1927Z from Region 1884 (S09E78). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28
Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 324 km/s at
25/2226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 555 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (28 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day
three (29 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one,
two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Oct 165 Predicted 27 Oct-29 Oct 165/165/160 90 Day Mean 26 Oct 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct 007/008-014/020-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 50% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 25% |
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