Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 26/1927Z from Region 1884 (S09E78). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 324 km/s at 25/2226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 555 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (27 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (28 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (29 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (27 Oct, 28 Oct, 29 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
Class M65%65%65%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Oct 165
  Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct 165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        26 Oct 115

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  003/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Oct  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  007/008-014/020-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct to 29 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%50%35%
Minor storm05%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%20%25%

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