Viewing archive of Friday, 25 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at 25/1503Z from Region 1882 (S08E59). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 357 km/s at 25/0412Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 25/0238Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 25/0109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 644 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Oct, 27 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct, 28 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
Class M70%70%70%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Oct 161
  Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct 165/165/160
  90 Day Mean        25 Oct 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Oct  002/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  007/008-007/008-011/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct to 28 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%30%
Minor storm05%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%25%

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