Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at 24/0030Z from Region 1877 (S12W03). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at 24/0700Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0910Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 767 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Oct), have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day two (26 Oct) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
Class M 55%55%55%
Class X 10%10%10%
Proton10%15%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Oct 161
  Predicted    25 Oct-27 Oct 165/165/165
  90 Day Mean        24 Oct 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  003/003
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  003/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  014/016-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%20%25%
Minor storm 15%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 20%20%20%
Major-severe storm 25%20%25%

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