Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 October 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M9 event observed at
24/0030Z from Region 1877 (S12W03). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 367 km/s at
24/0700Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 24/0910Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1816Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 767 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (25 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Oct, 27 Oct). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Oct), have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day two (26 Oct) and have a slight
chance of crossing threshold on day three (27 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Oct 161 Predicted 25 Oct-27 Oct 165/165/165 90 Day Mean 24 Oct 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct 014/016-009/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct to 27 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
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