Viewing archive of Tuesday, 22 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at 22/2120Z from Region 1875 (N07E04). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at 22/1847Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 22/1523Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 22/1944Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2433 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (24 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 146
  Predicted    23 Oct-25 Oct 145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 112

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  002/001
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  005/006
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  006/005-006/008-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%15%25%
Minor storm 01%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%20%25%
Major-severe storm 10%20%35%

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