Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 288 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 15/0507Z from Region 1865 (S21W21). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (16 Oct, 17 Oct, 18 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 578 km/s at 15/2036Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 15/0108Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 15/0053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 284 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (16 Oct, 17 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (18 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Oct 125
  Predicted   16 Oct-18 Oct 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        15 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Oct  010/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Oct-18 Oct  012/015-015/018-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Oct to 18 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%30%15%

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