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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 13/0043Z from Region 1865 (S22E06). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at 12/2116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 407 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Oct 129
  Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 125/125/125
  90 Day Mean        13 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  003/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  002/003
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  005/005-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct to 16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%20%20%
Minor storm01%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%20%15%

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