Viewing archive of Friday, 11 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 11/0725Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Oct, 13 Oct, 14 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 460 km/s at 11/0313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 505 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Oct, 13 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
Class M40%40%40%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Oct 129
  Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct 135/135/130
  90 Day Mean        11 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Oct  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  006/005-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct to 14 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%15%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%10%15%

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