Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 09/0148Z from Region 1865 (S21E58). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct, 11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 683 km/s at 09/0311Z. Total IMF reached 36 nT at 08/2112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 08/2305Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Oct 113
  Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        09 Oct 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  012/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Oct  017/022
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  012/012-008/010-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct to 12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%20%
Major-severe storm40%05%10%

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