Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 October 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Oct 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 480 km/s at 08/1943Z. Total IMF reached 26 nT at 08/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 08/2046Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (09 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Oct 112
  Predicted   09 Oct-11 Oct 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        08 Oct 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct  008/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Oct  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct  016/008-012/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct to 11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm25%30%15%
Major-severe storm65%40%05%

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