Viewing archive of Friday, 27 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 349 km/s at 27/1754Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
Class M 01%01%01%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Sep 108
  Predicted    28 Sep-30 Sep 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        27 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Sep  002/003
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep  005/005-007/008-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep to 30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%15%
Minor storm 01%01%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 15%20%25%
Major-severe storm 05%10%25%

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