Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 24/2256Z from Region 1846 (S18W18). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 482 km/s at 25/0544Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Sep 111
  Predicted   26 Sep-28 Sep 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        25 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep  009/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Sep  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep  004/005-004/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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