Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 455 km/s at 24/1954Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 24/1201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/1108Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 838 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Sep 110
  Predicted    25 Sep-27 Sep 110/110/110
  90 Day Mean        24 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Sep  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Sep  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep  004/007-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Sep to 27 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%05%05%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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