Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 September 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep, 25 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at
22/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2905 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Sep, 24 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (25 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 111 Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 110/108/105 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/008-008/008-003/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep to 25 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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