Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 September 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 21/0924Z from Region 1850 (N08E52). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 470 km/s at 20/2137Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1732Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0722Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2810 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (23 Sep, 24 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Sep 110
  Predicted   22 Sep-24 Sep 115/118/115
  90 Day Mean        21 Sep 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep  005/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Sep  008/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep  005/005-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep to 24 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active05%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%10%10%

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