Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Sep, 17 Sep, 18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 490 km/s at 14/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 15/1834Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 15/2002Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels on day one (16 Sep) with active levels likely and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (17 Sep, 18 Sep) with a chance for active levels.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Sep 093
  Predicted   16 Sep-18 Sep 095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        15 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Sep  002/002
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep  013/015-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm04%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%25%15%
Minor storm35%35%25%
Major-severe storm45%25%10%

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