Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep, 15 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at 12/2055Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 12/1946Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/1905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 229 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Sep) with a slight chance for minor storm levels, quiet to unsettled levels on day two (14 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (15 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Sep 093
  Predicted   13 Sep-15 Sep 095/100/100
  90 Day Mean        12 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Sep  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep  013/015-008/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%05%
Minor storm15%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%15%
Major-severe storm45%20%05%

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