Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 September 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 417 km/s at 11/1705Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 162 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day two (13 Sep) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (14 Sep) as CH HSS effects subside.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Sep 093
  Predicted   12 Sep-14 Sep 095/095/100
  90 Day Mean        11 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Sep  008/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep  016/020-013/015-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%10%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%45%20%

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