Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 September 2013

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Sep 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 01/1420Z from Region 1834 (N12W34). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (02 Sep, 03 Sep, 04 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 599 km/s at 01/1215Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 01/0607Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 01/1204Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 446 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (02 Sep), quiet levels on day two (03 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (04 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Sep 104
  Predicted   02 Sep-04 Sep 105/108/110
  90 Day Mean        01 Sep 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Aug  011/013
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Sep  012/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Sep-04 Sep  013/015-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Sep to 04 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm15%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%15%25%
Major-severe storm45%10%20%

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