Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 27 2300 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 440 km/s at 27/2045Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 27/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 27/1810Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1407 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug, 30 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Aug 110
  Predicted   28 Aug-30 Aug 105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        27 Aug 114

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug  004/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Aug  004/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug  007/008-007/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%20%
Minor storm01%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%30%

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