Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Aug,
27 Aug, 28 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
456 km/s at 25/0703Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/2118Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 25/1005Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1871 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Aug, 27 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (28 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Aug 113 Predicted 26 Aug-28 Aug 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 25 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Aug 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Aug 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Aug-28 Aug 011/012-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Aug to 28 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
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