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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 20/0129Z from Region 1818 (S05W76). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 472 km/s at 19/2209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5339 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Aug 132
  Predicted   21 Aug-23 Aug 130/125/125
  90 Day Mean        20 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug  006/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Aug  003/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug  015/018-014/015-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug to 23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%35%35%

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