Viewing archive of Monday, 19 August 2013
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2013IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
19/0920Z from Region 1817 (S19W88). There are currently 10 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug,
22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550km/s at
18/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6050 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Aug), unsettled to
active levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (22 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 128 Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 19 Aug 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 011/014-014/018-014/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
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