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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2013 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/0920Z from Region 1817 (S19W88). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 550km/s at 18/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6050 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (20 Aug), unsettled to active levels on day two (21 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (20 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 128
  Predicted   20 Aug-22 Aug 125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  011/014-014/018-014/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%25%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm25%35%35%
Major-severe storm20%30%30%

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